Well it doesn’t get much stronger than this. I think it’s pretty clear that we’re not going to see a phone from Microsoft. I’ve talked about why we wouldn’t see a Zune phone before but it’s worth repeating.
The business model of Windows Mobile is totally different than Zune and the Xbox (in fact, I’d argue that we’ll see Microsoft get out of the Zune hardware business long before they become a direct handset vendor but that’s another story)
Zune was a good idea to some extent since the technology Microsoft was licensing wasn’t getting them anywhere. As it was, hardware partners were taken aback by Microsoft’s actions but were still comfortable licensing. The phone is different. WinMo is a core platform and OS. No one has ever been successful licensing technology platforms to others and then competing with a device of their own. Apple failed (twice), Palm and Nokia all tried it and it just can’t be done. Microsoft now has traction with more than 20 million licenses out there and a great stream of partners and new phones for consumer and business use. A Zune phone from MSFT would potentially hurt all that.
Moreover, how would MSFT bring this to market? There’s no mass market for unlocked phones in the US (just ask Nokia how hard it is to sell a high end phone with no carrier). MSFT as an MVNO? Not happening. A partnership as Apple did with the iPhone? Well, it could work but boy would that alienate licenses.
There’s always some possibility of MSFT exploring a phone but it’s far more likely mobile Zune branded functions just get baked into a future version of Windows Mobile and other platforms, something we’ve heard Steve Ballmer hint about in the last few months.
Now that we’ve got that cleared up, let’s try and resolve that whole “moon landing is a hoax” thing as well
